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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T12:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25922/1
Model Inputs:
2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=769.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2023-07-11T23:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-14T12:51Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =26.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-15T10:59Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-13T10:23Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-14T07:17Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 46.87 hour(s)
Difference: 3.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-07-12T17:03Z

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